Parameter für Langfristszenarien 2004
Anlage 13
|
Produktivitätswachstum
|
Lohnsteigerung
|
Erwerbsquoten
|
|
|
|
Männer
|
Frauen
|
gesamt
|
2005
|
1,97
|
1,97
|
76,7%
|
60,8%
|
68,8%
|
2006
|
1,96
|
1,96
|
77,0%
|
61,0%
|
69,1%
|
2007
|
1,95
|
1,95
|
76,8%
|
61,2
|
69,1%
|
2008
|
1,94
|
1,94
|
76,7%
|
61,0%
|
69,0%
|
2009
|
1,93
|
1,93
|
76,6%
|
61,0%
|
68,9%
|
2010
|
1,92
|
1,92
|
76,5%
|
61,7%
|
69,2%
|
2011
|
1,91
|
1,91
|
76,4%
|
61,6%
|
69,1%
|
2012
|
1,91
|
1,91
|
76,5%
|
61,4%
|
69,0%
|
2013
|
1,90
|
1,90
|
76,6%
|
61,5%
|
69,1%
|
2014
|
1,89
|
1,89
|
76,7%
|
61,4%
|
69,2%
|
2015
|
1,88
|
1,88
|
76,8%
|
61,5%
|
69,2%
|
2016
|
1,87
|
1,87
|
76,8%
|
61,2%
|
69,1%
|
2017
|
1,86
|
1,86
|
76,7%
|
61,1%
|
69,0%
|
2018
|
1,85
|
1,85
|
76,8%
|
61,0%
|
69,0%
|
2019
|
1,84
|
1,84
|
76,7%
|
60,8%
|
68,9%
|
2020
|
1,84
|
1,84
|
77,0%
|
61,7%
|
69,4%
|
2021
|
1,83
|
1,83
|
77,1%
|
61,7%
|
69,5%
|
2022
|
1,82
|
1,82
|
77,0%
|
61,8%
|
69,5%
|
2023
|
1,81
|
1,81
|
77,0%
|
61,8%
|
69,5%
|
2024
|
1,80
|
1,80
|
77,2%
|
61,7%
|
69,5%
|
2025
|
1,79
|
1,79
|
77,2%
|
62,4%
|
69,9%
|
2026
|
1,78
|
1,78
|
77,4%
|
62,7%
|
70,1%
|
2027
|
1,78
|
1,78
|
77,7%
|
62,9%
|
70,4%
|
2028
|
1,77
|
1,77
|
77,8%
|
63,3%
|
70,7%
|
2029
|
1,76
|
1,76
|
78,1%
|
63,7%
|
71,0%
|
2030
|
1,75
|
1,75
|
78,7%
|
64,7%
|
71,8%
|
2031
|
1,75
|
1,75
|
79,4%
|
66,0%
|
72,8%
|
2032
|
1,75
|
1,75
|
79,6%
|
66,2%
|
73,0%
|
2033
|
1,75
|
1,75
|
79,9%
|
66,6%
|
73,4%
|
2034
|
1,75
|
1,75
|
80,2%
|
67,0%
|
73,7%
|
2035
|
1,75
|
1,75
|
80,3%
|
67,4%
|
74,0%
|
2036
|
1,75
|
1,75
|
80,5%
|
67,7%
|
74,2%
|
2037
|
1,75
|
1,75
|
80,7%
|
67,9%
|
74,4%
|
2038
|
1,75
|
1,75
|
80,7%
|
68,1%
|
74,5%
|
2039
|
1,75
|
1,75
|
80,8%
|
68,3%
|
74,6%
|
2040
|
1,75
|
1,75
|
81,2%
|
69,0%
|
75,2%
|
2041
|
1,75
|
1,75
|
81,6%
|
69,5%
|
75,7%
|
2042
|
1,75
|
1,75
|
81,5%
|
69,5%
|
75,6%
|
2043
|
1,75
|
1,75
|
81,4%
|
69,5%
|
75,6%
|
2044
|
1,75
|
1,75
|
81,3%
|
69,6%
|
75,6%
|
2045
|
1,75
|
1,75
|
81,3%
|
69,7%
|
75,6%
|
2046
|
1,75
|
1,75
|
81,3%
|
69,7%
|
75,7%
|
2047
|
1,75
|
1,75
|
81,3%
|
69,8%
|
75,7%
|
2048
|
1,75
|
1,75
|
81,3%
|
69,9%
|
75,7%
|
2049
|
1,75
|
1,75
|
81,3%
|
70,0%
|
75,7%
|
2050
|
1,75
|
1,75
|
81,2%
|
70,1%
|
75,8%
|
Parameter für Langfristszenarien 2004: Erwerbsquoten
|
Männer
|
|
Frauen
|
|
Männer und Frauen
|
|
15-24
|
25-54
|
55-64
|
|
15-24
|
25-54
|
55-64
|
|
15-24
|
25-54
|
55-64
|
2005
|
60%
|
89%
|
45%
|
|
52%
|
74%
|
19%
|
|
56%
|
82%
|
32%
|
2006
|
60%
|
89%
|
45%
|
|
52%
|
74%
|
19%
|
|
56%
|
82%
|
32%
|
2007
|
60%
|
89%
|
45%
|
|
52%
|
74%
|
20%
|
|
56%
|
82%
|
32%
|
2008
|
60%
|
89%
|
45%
|
|
51%
|
74%
|
20%
|
|
56%
|
82%
|
32%
|
2009
|
60%
|
89%
|
45%
|
|
51%
|
74%
|
20%
|
|
56%
|
82%
|
32%
|
2010
|
60%
|
89%
|
45%
|
|
51%
|
75%
|
20%
|
|
56%
|
82%
|
33%
|
2011
|
60%
|
89%
|
46%
|
|
51%
|
75%
|
21%
|
|
56%
|
82%
|
34%
|
2012
|
60%
|
89%
|
47%
|
|
51%
|
75%
|
22%
|
|
56%
|
82%
|
35%
|
2013
|
60%
|
89%
|
48%
|
|
51%
|
75%
|
23%
|
|
56%
|
82%
|
36%
|
2014
|
60%
|
88%
|
49%
|
|
51%
|
75%
|
24%
|
|
56%
|
82%
|
37%
|
2015
|
60%
|
89%
|
50%
|
|
51%
|
75%
|
25%
|
|
56%
|
82%
|
37%
|
2016
|
60%
|
89%
|
51%
|
|
50%
|
75%
|
25%
|
|
55%
|
82%
|
38%
|
2017
|
60%
|
89%
|
51%
|
|
50%
|
75%
|
26%
|
|
55%
|
82%
|
39%
|
2018
|
60%
|
89%
|
52%
|
|
50%
|
75%
|
27%
|
|
55%
|
82%
|
39%
|
2019
|
60%
|
89%
|
52%
|
|
50%
|
75%
|
28%
|
|
55%
|
82%
|
40%
|
2020
|
60%
|
89%
|
52%
|
|
50%
|
76%
|
28%
|
|
55%
|
83%
|
40%
|
2021
|
60%
|
89%
|
53%
|
|
50%
|
76%
|
29%
|
|
55%
|
83%
|
41%
|
2022
|
60%
|
89%
|
53%
|
|
50%
|
76%
|
30%
|
|
55%
|
83%
|
42%
|
2023
|
60%
|
89%
|
53%
|
|
50%
|
76%
|
31%
|
|
55%
|
83%
|
42%
|
2024
|
60%
|
89%
|
54%
|
|
49%
|
76%
|
31%
|
|
55%
|
83%
|
43%
|
2025
|
60%
|
90%
|
54%
|
|
49%
|
77%
|
32%
|
|
55%
|
84%
|
43%
|
2026
|
60%
|
90%
|
55%
|
|
49%
|
77%
|
33%
|
|
55%
|
84%
|
44%
|
2027
|
60%
|
90%
|
55%
|
|
49%
|
77%
|
34%
|
|
55%
|
84%
|
45%
|
2028
|
60%
|
90%
|
56%
|
|
49%
|
77%
|
35%
|
|
55%
|
84%
|
45%
|
2029
|
60%
|
90%
|
56%
|
|
49%
|
77%
|
36%
|
|
55%
|
84%
|
46%
|
2030
|
60%
|
90%
|
57%
|
|
49%
|
77%
|
37%
|
|
55%
|
84%
|
47%
|
2031
|
60%
|
90%
|
57%
|
|
49%
|
79%
|
37%
|
|
55%
|
85%
|
47%
|
2032
|
60%
|
90%
|
57%
|
|
48%
|
79%
|
38%
|
|
54%
|
85%
|
47%
|
2033
|
60%
|
90%
|
57%
|
|
48%
|
79%
|
39%
|
|
54%
|
85%
|
48%
|
2034
|
60%
|
90%
|
58%
|
|
48%
|
79%
|
39%
|
|
54%
|
85%
|
48%
|
2035
|
60%
|
90%
|
58%
|
|
48%
|
79%
|
40%
|
|
54%
|
85%
|
49%
|
2036
|
60%
|
90%
|
58%
|
|
48%
|
79%
|
41%
|
|
54%
|
85%
|
49%
|
2037
|
60%
|
90%
|
58%
|
|
48%
|
79%
|
41%
|
|
54%
|
85%
|
50%
|
2038
|
60%
|
90%
|
58%
|
|
48%
|
79%
|
42%
|
|
54%
|
85%
|
50%
|
2039
|
60%
|
90%
|
58%
|
|
48%
|
79%
|
42%
|
|
54%
|
85%
|
50%
|
2040
|
60%
|
90%
|
58%
|
|
48%
|
79%
|
43%
|
|
54%
|
85%
|
50%
|
2041
|
60%
|
91%
|
58%
|
|
48%
|
80%
|
43%
|
|
54%
|
86%
|
51%
|
2042
|
60%
|
91%
|
58%
|
|
48%
|
80%
|
44%
|
|
54%
|
86%
|
51%
|
2043
|
60%
|
91%
|
58%
|
|
48%
|
80%
|
44%
|
|
54%
|
86%
|
51%
|
2044
|
60%
|
91%
|
58%
|
|
48%
|
80%
|
45%
|
|
54%
|
86%
|
51%
|
2045
|
60%
|
91%
|
58%
|
|
48%
|
80%
|
45%
|
|
54%
|
86%
|
52%
|
2046
|
60%
|
91%
|
58%
|
|
48%
|
80%
|
46%
|
|
54%
|
86%
|
52%
|
2047
|
60%
|
91%
|
58%
|
|
48%
|
80%
|
46%
|
|
54%
|
86%
|
52%
|
2048
|
60%
|
91%
|
58%
|
|
48%
|
80%
|
47%
|
|
54%
|
86%
|
52%
|
2049
|
60%
|
91%
|
58%
|
|
48%
|
80%
|
47%
|
|
54%
|
86%
|
52%
|
2050
|
60%
|
91%
|
58%
|
|
48%
|
80%
|
47%
|
|
54%
|
86%
|
53%
|